Land potential assessment and trend-analysis using 2000-2021 FAPAR monthly time-series at 250 m spatial resolution.

The article presents results of using remote sensing images and machine learning to map and assess land potential based on time-series of potential Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) composites. Land potential here refers to the potential vegetation productivity in the hypothetical absence of short-term anthropogenic influence, such as intensive agriculture and urbanization. Knowledge on this ecological land potential could support the assessment of levels of land degradation as well as restoration potentials. Monthly aggregated FAPAR time-series of three percentiles (0.05, 0.50 and 0.95 probability) at 250 m spatial resolution were derived from the 8-day GLASS FAPAR V6 product for 2000-2021 and used to determine long-term trends in FAPAR, as well as to model potential FAPAR in the absence of human pressure. CCa 3 million training points sampled from 12,500 locations across the globe were overlaid with 68 bio-physical variables representing climate, terrain, landform, and vegetation cover, as well as several variables representing human pressure including: population count, cropland intensity, nightlights and a human footprint index. The training points were used in an ensemble machine learning model that stacks three base learners (extremely randomized trees, gradient descended trees and artificial neural network) using a linear regressor as meta-learner. The potential FAPAR was then projected by removing the impact of urbanization and intensive agriculture in the covariate layers. The results of strict cross-validation show that the global distribution of FAPAR can be explained with an R2 of 0.89, with the most important covariates being growing season length, forest cover indicator and annual precipitation. From this model, a global map of potential monthly FAPAR for the recent year (2021) was produced, and used to predict gaps in actual vs. potential FAPAR. The produced global maps of actual vs. potential FAPAR and long-term trends were each spatially matched with stable and transitional land cover classes. The assessment showed large negative FAPAR gaps (actual lower than potential) for classes: urban, needle-leave deciduous trees, and flooded shrub or herbaceous cover, while strong negative FAPAR trends were found for classes: urban, sparse vegetation and rainfed cropland. On the other hand, classes: irrigated or post-flooded cropland, tree cover mixed leaf type, and broad-leave deciduous showed largely positive trends. The framework allows land managers to assess potential land degradation from two aspects: as an actual declining trend in observed FAPAR and as a difference between actual and potential vegetation FAPAR.

Global rainfall erosivity database (GloREDa) and monthly R-factor data at 1 km spatial resolution.

Here, we present and release the Global Rainfall Erosivity Database (GloREDa), a multi-source platform containing rainfall erosivity values for almost 4000 stations globally. The database was compiled through a global collaboration between a network of researchers, meteorological services and environmental organisations from 65 countries. GloREDa is the first open access database of rainfall erosivity (R-factor) based on hourly and sub-hourly rainfall records at a global scale. This database is now stored and accessible for download in the long-term European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC) repository of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. This will ensure the further development of the database with insertions of new records, maintenance of the data and provision of a helpdesk. In addition to the annual erosivity data, this release also includes the mean monthly erosivity data for 94% of the GloREDa stations. Based on these mean monthly R-factor values, we predict the global monthly erosivity datasets at 1 km resolution using the ensemble machine learning approach (ML) as implemented in the mlr package for R. The produced monthly raster data (GeoTIFF format) may be useful for soil erosion prediction modelling, sediment distribution analysis, climate change predictions, flood, and natural disaster assessments and can be valuable inputs for Land and Earth Systems modelling.

African soil properties and nutrients mapped at 30 m spatial resolution using two-scale ensemble machine learning.

Soil property and class maps for the continent of Africa were so far only available at very generalised scales, with many countries not mapped at all. Thanks to an increasing quantity and availability of soil samples collected at field point locations by various government and/or NGO funded projects, it is now possible to produce detailed pan-African maps of soil nutrients, including micro-nutrients at fine spatial resolutions. In this paper we describe production of a 30 m resolution Soil Information System of the African continent using, to date, the most comprehensive compilation of soil samples ([Formula: see text]) and Earth Observation data. We produced predictions for soil pH, organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N), total carbon, effective Cation Exchange Capacity (eCEC), extractable-phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sulfur (S), sodium (Na), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn)-silt, clay and sand, stone content, bulk density and depth to bedrock, at three depths (0, 20 and 50 cm) and using 2-scale 3D Ensemble Machine Learning framework implemented in the mlr (Machine Learning in R) package. As covariate layers we used 250 m resolution (MODIS, PROBA-V and SM2RAIN products), and 30 m resolution (Sentinel-2, Landsat and DTM derivatives) images. Our fivefold spatial Cross-Validation results showed varying accuracy levels ranging from the best performing soil pH (CCC = 0.900) to more poorly predictable extractable phosphorus (CCC = 0.654) and sulphur (CCC = 0.708) and depth to bedrock. Sentinel-2 bands SWIR (B11, B12), NIR (B09, B8A), Landsat SWIR bands, and vertical depth derived from 30 m resolution DTM, were the overall most important 30 m resolution covariates. Climatic data images-SM2RAIN, bioclimatic variables and MODIS Land Surface Temperature-however, remained as the overall most important variables for predicting soil chemical variables at continental scale. This publicly available 30-m Soil Information System of Africa aims at supporting numerous applications, including soil and fertilizer policies and investments, agronomic advice to close yield gaps, environmental programs, or targeting of nutrition interventions.

Global mapping of potential natural vegetation: an assessment of machine learning algorithms for estimating land potential.

Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is the vegetation cover in equilibrium with climate, that would exist at a given location if not impacted by human activities. PNV is useful for raising public awareness about land degradation and for estimating land potential. This paper presents results of assessing machine learning algorithms-neural networks (nnet package), random forest (ranger), gradient boosting (gbm), K-nearest neighborhood (class) and Cubist-for operational mapping of PNV. Three case studies were considered: (1) global distribution of biomes based on the BIOME 6000 data set (8,057 modern pollen-based site reconstructions), (2) distribution of forest tree taxa in Europe based on detailed occurrence records (1,546,435 ground observations), and (3) global monthly fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) values (30,301 randomly-sampled points). A stack of 160 global maps representing biophysical conditions over land, including atmospheric, climatic, relief, and lithologic variables, were used as explanatory variables. The overall results indicate that random forest gives the overall best performance. The highest accuracy for predicting BIOME 6000 classes (20) was estimated to be between 33% (with spatial cross-validation) and 68% (simple random sub-setting), with the most important predictors being total annual precipitation, monthly temperatures, and bioclimatic layers. Predicting forest tree species (73) resulted in mapping accuracy of 25%, with the most important predictors being monthly cloud fraction, mean annual and monthly temperatures, and elevation. Regression models for FAPAR (monthly images) gave an R-square of 90% with the most important predictors being total annual precipitation, monthly cloud fraction, CHELSA bioclimatic layers, and month of the year, respectively. Further developments of PNV mapping could include using all GBIF records to map the global distribution of plant species at different taxonomic levels. This methodology could also be extended to dynamic modeling of PNV, so that future climate scenarios can be incorporated. Global maps of biomes, FAPAR and tree species at one km spatial resolution are available for download via http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QQHCIK.

SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil information based on machine learning.

This paper describes the technical development and accuracy assessment of the most recent and improved version of the SoilGrids system at 250m resolution (June 2016 update). SoilGrids provides global predictions for standard numeric soil properties (organic carbon, bulk density, Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), pH, soil texture fractions and coarse fragments) at seven standard depths (0, 5, 15, 30, 60, 100 and 200 cm), in addition to predictions of depth to bedrock and distribution of soil classes based on the World Reference Base (WRB) and USDA classification systems (ca. 280 raster layers in total). Predictions were based on ca. 150,000 soil profiles used for training and a stack of 158 remote sensing-based soil covariates (primarily derived from MODIS land products, SRTM DEM derivatives, climatic images and global landform and lithology maps), which were used to fit an ensemble of machine learning methods-random forest and gradient boosting and/or multinomial logistic regression-as implemented in the R packages ranger, xgboost, nnet and caret. The results of 10-fold cross-validation show that the ensemble models explain between 56% (coarse fragments) and 83% (pH) of variation with an overall average of 61%. Improvements in the relative accuracy considering the amount of variation explained, in comparison to the previous version of SoilGrids at 1 km spatial resolution, range from 60 to 230%. Improvements can be attributed to: (1) the use of machine learning instead of linear regression, (2) to considerable investments in preparing finer resolution covariate layers and (3) to insertion of additional soil profiles. Further development of SoilGrids could include refinement of methods to incorporate input uncertainties and derivation of posterior probability distributions (per pixel), and further automation of spatial modeling so that soil maps can be generated for potentially hundreds of soil variables. Another area of future research is the development of methods for multiscale merging of SoilGrids predictions with local and/or national gridded soil products (e.g. up to 50 m spatial resolution) so that increasingly more accurate, complete and consistent global soil information can be produced. SoilGrids are available under the Open Data Base License.

Soil nutrient maps of Sub-Saharan Africa: assessment of soil nutrient content at 250 m spatial resolution using machine learning.

Spatial predictions of soil macro and micro-nutrient content across Sub-Saharan Africa at 250 m spatial resolution and for 0-30 cm depth interval are presented. Predictions were produced for 15 target nutrients: organic carbon (C) and total (organic) nitrogen (N), total phosphorus (P), and extractable-phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sulfur (S), sodium (Na), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), aluminum (Al) and boron (B). Model training was performed using soil samples from ca. 59,000 locations (a compilation of soil samples from the AfSIS, EthioSIS, One Acre Fund, VitalSigns and legacy soil data) and an extensive stack of remote sensing covariates in addition to landform, lithologic and land cover maps. An ensemble model was then created for each nutrient from two machine learning algorithms- random forest and gradient boosting, as implemented in R packages ranger and xgboost-and then used to generate predictions in a fully-optimized computing system. Cross-validation revealed that apart from S, P and B, significant models can be produced for most targeted nutrients (R-square between 40-85%). Further comparison with OFRA field trial database shows that soil nutrients are indeed critical for agricultural development, with Mn, Zn, Al, B and Na, appearing as the most important nutrients for predicting crop yield. A limiting factor for mapping nutrients using the existing point data in Africa appears to be (1) the high spatial clustering of sampling locations, and (2) missing more detailed parent material/geological maps. Logical steps towards improving prediction accuracies include: further collection of input (training) point samples, further harmonization of measurement methods, addition of more detailed covariates specific to Africa, and implementation of a full spatiotemporal statistical modeling framework.